NZIIA Seminar: 'The Origins of the New Cold War.'

For over a decade, the US and China have made weekly headlines with their ongoing dispute across many areas, particularly economic and military. With tonight’s lecturer, Dr Charles Edel, we have reviewed the current dynamics of this Sino-American competition.

From 1945 to 47, the relationship between the US and the Soviet Union went from being a productive, if not, tense wartime alliance to a geo-political and ideological rivalry which would go on to span for multiple decades. Thus the Cold War was born. This was largely thanks to the Soviet Union’s desire to encompass large portions of both Europe and Asia. This was due to their expansionist, Marxist/Leninist mindset, as well as Stalin’s own insecurities. This thus led to the US’s efforts for continuing cooperation to be continuously rejected and rebuffed, with very little effort the US could make to appease Stalin. This is referred as the Neo Orthodox Interpretation. On the other hand, some have blamed the downturn on the US for their own desire to push their ideology, and blatantly ignoring Russian concerns and interests. But a third view argued that this was simply inevitable as two superpowers, with different histories, systems and concepts for world peace, were never going to meet eye-to-eye, especially after an event such as World War II.

As tensions rise between Beijing and Washington DC, there has been a growing fear of a new Cold War on the horizon. "A multi-decade contest to shape an international order", in Dr Edel's words. With this, questions have been mounting, especially who and/or what is responsible for this downslope in relations. But it is not an easy nor is it a simple answer. Because depending on your understanding on the policies involved, there are multiple answers or interpretations. One interpretation is that Washington should stop provoking Beijing. Another is that Xi Jinping’s government has become increasingly ambitious, aggressive and authoritarian. Which then leads to comparing Xi Jinping’s to Stalin in regards to personality and policies. Thirdly, and finally, that this contest was ultimately inevitable due to the fall of the Soviet Union and China’s growing fears of the US’s desire for ideological influence over Southeast Asia as China’s power grows. Thus making it impossible for China’s government to feel secure, and for the Washington to appease Beijing.

Though the similarities and differences between US’s relationship between Russia and China are vast, Dr Edel argues that the analogy presented holds a key for policy makers today. Dr Edel iterated that strong security arrangements, backed up by full military power, are likely to harden any feelings of antagonism and suspicion, and preserving peace. Furthermore, all politicians must understand the nature of the competition being geo-political and ideological. Dr Edel asserted that Xi Jinping’s China is not Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union, but he asserted that China is continuing to undermine democracy with its authoritarian regime. An authoritarian, oppressive and technologically adept state such as China will always continue to protect its ideologies from the US and its allies.

Dr Edel is a Yale College and Yale University graduate with a BA in Classics and a PhD in History. At the US Naval War College, he was associate professor of strategy and policy. Moreover, he served on the US Secretary of State’s policy planning staff from 2015 to 2017. In that role, he advised Secretary of State John Kerry on political and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. Currently, he is a senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, Australia. He is the author of Nation Builder: John Quincy Adams and the Grand Strategy of the Republic, as well as The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order. In addition to his scholarly publications, his writings have appeared in The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The American Interest, and various other outlets.

Also, see the previous seminar here.