NZIIA Seminar: 'A New Cold War: Assessing the Current U.S.-Russia Relationship.'

A New Cold War is characterised by the increasing US-Russia relationship, which was the topic of tonight’s seminar. Tonight’s speaker, Nicolas Ross Smith used a neoclassical realist framework to argue that such an analogy is significantly misleading. With four crucial dimensions, structural, ideological, psychological and technological, he helped us understand why the original Cold war became a global existential contest between the USA and the Soviet Union.

Firstly, with structural, the Cold War saw the emergence of a bipolar system, with high levels of bipolarization in the 1950s, with bipolarity becoming particularly dangerous due to it leading into an unhealthy fixation. Where as with the current relationship, the current system is probably described best as a uni-multipolar system, the U.S. reached its hegemonic zenith with Iraq, and the US-Russia relationship is regional, not global in scope. Secondly, with ideological, two ideologies remained after World War II; Soviet Union's Marxism-Leninism vs. U.S.'s Democratic Capitalism. The two ideologies were both perceived (by their championing nations) as "universal." As opposed to now where the U.S. has had its liberal hegemony ideology, while Russia, over time, developed an anti-U.S. hegemony ideology. Even though there are clear ideological differences but neither universalist.

Thirdly, with psychological, anxiety, fear and paranoia between U.S. and Russia became more pessimistic by the 1950s, and a mirror image of distorted perceptions emerged with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Where as now positive psychological conditions of initial post-Cold War setting had dissipated altogether in the 2000s. Even though Russia has interpreted Western expansion as imperialistic while U.S. has grown fearful of Russian meddling. The current psychological setting resembles the early days of the Cold War with significant amount of mutual distrust. Finally, with technological, the Cold War saw technological fixation on nuclear weapons, where they were thought of, at first, as offensive weapons then defensive over time. Once nuclear weapons parity was, more or less, achieved, and technological competition moved elsewhere, e.g. space. Now, technological change has continued to an exponential rate, where the digital revolution had moved international politics to new frontiers, such as cyberspace. Though the current relationship is most fiercely contested online, the fears of nuclear war still looms in the background.

Through a comparative examination of the fifteen-year period of the Cold War, and of the current US-Russia relationship, he concluded that despite cooling of the US-Russia relationship, the term New Cold War mistakes the reality of the relationship. The Cold War became a content of global significance because of the underpinning geopolitical structure. As well, ideological differences and strong threat perceptions were present on both sides. The technological dimension – especially nuclear arms – significantly affected international politics. The world is structurally transitioning towards multipolarity. A period of US-China bipolarity is likely, with Russia positioned as a declining power. Unlike the Cold War, ideological differences are not as stark, and the threat perceptions are not as bleak. Technology has shifted the competition to new frontiers, e.g. cyberspace. Potential for a New Cold War of global significance remains. The source would potentially be the Sino-US relationship, not the US-Russia relationship.

Smith is an Assistant Professor of International Studies at the University of Nottingham (Ningbo Campus). His Main research interests coalesce around great power competition, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe. He is the author of the book EU-Russian Relations and the Ukraine Crisis (Edward Elgar 2016), as well as articles in journals.

Also, see the previous seminar here.